Defense Aerospace in a Time of Reordering
- staff writers
- Nov 18, 2025
- 3 min read
CEO's INTRODUCTION
It’s humbling to attend a conference when the subject matter is new to me and not in my area of expertise.
For the second year in a row, as AVIAN seeks to expand its footprint into this sector, I joined the defense-focused Aerospace Event conference in DC. Having spent 26 years focused primarily on the commercial side of aerospace – which is, by nature, a more consistent and long-term sector – witnessing the players, insights, strategies, contracts and fluidity of the defense sector was enlightening. War is always messy, and the take-aways were unsettling and less ‘feel good’ than the average commercial 20-year forecast!
– Ian Gurekian, CEO & Founder
From major primes like Lockheed Martin, GE Aerospace and MOOG, to analysts from BofA, Aerodynamic Advisory and the Teal Group —the central message throughout the Aerospace Event in DC was clear: the defense aerospace sector is entering a structural transformation driven by geopolitics, technology diffusion, and industrial capacity constraints. If I had to group these themes into categories, they would be:
1. Geopolitical Realignment and “War Economy” Reindustrialization
The resurgence of peer conflict has reordered global defense priorities. Both the Teal Group and Agency Partners showed that Europe’s defense budgets, growing ~13% annually since 2020, now meet or exceed the NATO 2% target in some cases, with eastern states leading the charge. This surge marks a “war economy” footing—massive recapitalization of munitions, land systems, and air defense, particularly in Poland and the UK. The AeroDynamic Advisory presentation tied this shift to U.S. retrenchment, uncertainty about Washington’s commitments, and a global rise in defense sovereignty. Answering the call, countries like Brazil, Turkey, South Korea, and India are also expanding indigenous production and exports to greater and greater success.
2. Industrial Capacity, Sovereignty, and Supply Chains
Speakers from Lockheed Martin and Bank of America emphasized that future success depends less on platform innovation and more on industrial resilience—surge production, distributed supply chains, and modular architectures. The “arsenal of democracy” model must evolve into a networked, multinational ecosystem that can replenish weapons at scale while meeting diverse export restrictions (e.g., ITAR), with overall less outright dependence on the US’ ability to supply. European firms, from Rheinmetall to Leonardo, are actively localizing production, forging joint ventures, and securing ammunition self-sufficiency—illustrated by the FCG and AeroDynamic data on new cross-border assembly lines and JVs.
3. Technology: From Tactical Edge to Strategic Adaptation
A powerful through-line, highlighted by Fairmont Consulting Group, was the historical lesson that technological advantage may only translate into temporary dominance. Making an example out of historical battles using the longbow or the artillery of medieval Europe, today’s drones, AI-enabled systems, and precision munitions yield operational wins but not foregone outcomes. Ukraine and Israel’s conflicts in 2025 demonstrate both the utility and exhaustion of current technology; future wars will require integration across domains—autonomy, space, directed energy, and resilient communications – as well as the ability to bring the right technology, quickly, to different types of wars. For example, the next conflict might not be a drone-focused land battle.
4. The New Competitive Landscape
A consistent warning echoed throughout the presentations by the various speakers was that the U.S. risks ceding export markets if it cannot adapt to agile competitors offering ITAR-free systems, faster contracting, and equal partnerships. Success will belong to firms and nations that combine modularity, scalability, and coalition interoperability—not those clinging to legacy programs.
My take-away: The defense aerospace industry is pivoting from a procurement-driven, platform-centric era to one defined by industrial agility, allied integration, and technological adaptability. The new advantage will be speed, resilience, and the ability to turn innovation into sustainable deterrence faster than adversaries can adapt.
– Ian
Source: Teal Group, AeroDynamnic Advisory, Fairmont Consulting Group)
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